[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Ferrochrome Supply is Tight, Steel Bidding Prospects Look Positive, Chrome Ore Prices Increase and Market Sentiment Heats Up

On August 22, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,950-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was 8,000-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation was 8,100-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content); for South African high-carbon ferrochrome, the quotation was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and for Kazakhstan high-carbon ferrochrome, the quotation was 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat WoW.

This week, the ferrochrome market held up well. Entering a new round of steel mill tender pricing cycle, the market mainly adopted a wait-and-see approach with a clear bullish sentiment. The social inventory of the downstream stainless steel market continued to decrease, while planned production increased, starting to stock up raw materials for the September-October peak season, gradually releasing the demand for ferrochrome purchases. Recently, ferrochrome producers have mainly focused on delivering long-term orders, with retail tradable volumes being relatively tight; moreover, some ferrochrome producers implemented production cuts or suspensions, exacerbating the tight supply situation of ferrochrome, pushing up ferrochrome prices. Northern high-carbon ferrochrome quotations were concentrated at 8,000-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 150 yuan WoW. Meanwhile, the total imports of ferrochrome in July amounted to 226,800 mt, down 36.86% YoY, with South African ferrochrome imports totaling 108,600 mt, also down 36.86% YoY. Considering that South African chrome companies have repeatedly stated there are no plans to resume suspended operations within the year, it is estimated that subsequent ferrochrome imports will remain low, leading to an overall tight balance in the ferrochrome supply and demand. Cost side, both spot and futures prices of chrome ore rose slightly. Coupled with the impact of vehicle traffic control at Tianjin Port, freight rates increased by 30%, raising the cost of ore used in ferrochrome by about 100 yuan. Additionally, the seventh round of coke price increases was implemented, further increasing the cost of using coke, with ferrochrome production costs fluctuating at highs, strongly supporting ferrochrome prices.

Raw material side, on August 22, 2025, the spot price of 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port was 55.5-56 yuan/mtu; the 40-42% South African raw ore was quoted at 49-51 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was quoted at 57.5-58.5 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was quoted at 59-61 yuan/mtu; and 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was quoted at 60-61 yuan/mtu, up 0.25 yuan/mtu WoW. On the futures front, 40-42% South African powder was offered at $269-275/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was offered at $335-345/mt, flat WoW.

This week, the inquiry enthusiasm in the chrome ore market remained undiminished, with good transaction activity. Ferrochrome producers' profits have been somewhat restored, and with the expectation of future ferrochrome demand to be released, under favorable expectations, ferrochrome producers showed higher production enthusiasm, with plans to increase production. Considering the excessive cost pressure after the rise in chrome ore prices and the difficulty in transportation due to restrictions at Tianjin Port, there has been more restocking and purchasing of chrome ore, leading to a slight increase in prices. During the week, the main overseas mines of South African 40-42% chrome concentrate raised their quotations to $269/mt, boosting market confidence in chrome ore, with spot prices following suit at an increase of 0.5 yuan/mtu. Additionally, inquiries for Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were active; under supply tightness, its cost-effectiveness became more prominent, leading to smooth shipments. With stocking demand being released, outflows from warehouses of chrome ore remained high and stable, while inflows into warehouses significantly decreased. This week, port inventory of chrome ore declined by 9.24% MoM, totaling 2.8036 million mt. In the short term, robust demand and optimistic expectations are expected to support a strong and steady operation of the chrome ore market.